RED OAK, Iowa — U.S. Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is navigating a turbulent political landscape as she approaches a potential 2026 reelection campaign. Recent events have sparked debates about her positions, leadership, and electability in Republican-leaning Iowa.
Ernst drew significant criticism after a May 2025 town hall in Parkersburg, where she responded to concerns about proposed Medicaid cuts in a GOP-backed bill by saying, “We all are going to die.” The comment, addressing fears that the bill’s work requirements and eligibility changes could harm vulnerable Iowans, prompted accusations of insensitivity. Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten, who launched his Senate campaign in response, called the remark disrespectful, alleging it favored tax cuts for the wealthy. Ernst later apologized, emphasizing her compassion, but Democrats continue to criticize her priorities. Estimates suggest the bill could reduce Medicaid coverage for millions over the next decade.
A recent poll from August 2025 shows Ernst trailing Democratic state Senator Zach Wahls by one point (45% to 43%), while narrowly leading other Democratic contenders. Her approval rating has slipped to 37%, with 50% disapproval, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction. Democrats are leveraging economic concerns and Ernst’s Medicaid comments to challenge her, though Iowa remains a likely Republican stronghold.
On the legislative front, Ernst introduced the Streamlining Rural Broadband Act and the DOCTORS Act in July 2025, both under committee review, and secured passage of the Family Farm and Small Business Exemption Act. Her support for a stalled Department of Government Efficiency initiative has drawn scrutiny.
Ethical questions emerged in March 2025 when reports highlighted Ernst’s past romantic relationships with military officials, including one who lobbied her Senate Armed Services Committee. While not against Senate rules, the connections raised conflict-of-interest concerns. Her office dismissed the allegations as baseless, insisting her decisions prioritize Iowa voters.
Ernst’s failed bid for a Senate leadership role in November 2024 and ongoing speculation about her retirement add uncertainty to her 2026 plans. Despite hiring a campaign manager, she has not confirmed her run. If she steps aside, Representative Ashley Hinson is poised to enter the race. Senate GOP leaders are urging Ernst to stay in the fight.
As Ernst balances her support for controversial figures and the GOP agenda, her next steps will be critical in a state showing signs of political competitiveness.
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